Make Better Decisions
Explore uncertainty, bias, evidence, and the habits of clearer judgment.
Books in this collection
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Why do quick impressions feel convincing, why do losses loom larger than gains, and why can memory misrepresent experience? Kahneman’s account traces the shortcuts, statistical errors, reference points, frames, and competing selves that shape judgment, then considers how measurement, deliberate checking, and institutional design can improve decisions.
Thinking in Bets
Thinking in Bets asks how to make sound decisions when luck, incomplete information, and bias obscure what is true. Annie Duke uses poker as a model for probabilistic thinking, then develops practices for calibrated beliefs, learning from outcomes, constructive dissent, precommitment, and planning across possible futures.
Decisive
Decisive examines why people make poor choices: they narrow the frame, seek confirming evidence, react to short-term emotion, and overestimate the future. It presents WRAP—widen options, reality-test assumptions, attain distance, and prepare to be wrong—as a practical process for making clearer choices under uncertainty.
Noise
Noise examines why competent people can disagree about the same case—and why the same person can vary across occasions. It separates bias from unwanted variability, shows how judgment lotteries distort justice and prediction, and presents audits and decision-hygiene practices for making consequential decisions more consistent without erasing necessary discretion.
Think Again
Think Again examines how to question beliefs, loosen identity’s grip on being right, and revise decisions as circumstances change. Its central question is how to rethink alone and together—through productive disagreement, listening, education, and learning cultures—and pursue meaning without confusing persistence with wisdom.
Blink
Blink asks when a first impression is wiser than prolonged analysis. It explores how unconscious minds extract patterns from brief encounters, why expertise can sharpen or bias those reactions, and how stress, stereotypes, and decision settings can distort them—then shows how training and better-designed systems can make judgment more reliable.
Moneyball
Moneyball follows the Oakland Athletics’ attempt to win with a small payroll by finding baseball value that conventional scouting and the market overlook. It asks whether evidence, disciplined spending, and better questions can compete with wealth—and shows what data can reveal, and what it cannot, about people and performance.
Thinking in Systems
Thinking in Systems asks how interconnected structures produce behavior that persists, grows, oscillates, or collapses. It explains why familiar fixes fail, how feedback and goals create traps, and where leverage lies for changing systems—while preserving resilience and acting with humility when prediction and control are limited.
Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me)
Why do people defend bad decisions, distort memories, and resist evidence? This summary follows self-justification from personal choices through prejudice, clinical judgment, criminal justice, relationships, and national conflict, then shows how humility, independent checks, and honest responsibility can turn error into learning.
The Drunkard's Walk
Why do streaks, success, and apparent patterns feel earned or inevitable when chance may be doing much of the work? The book uses probability and statistics to separate skill, evidence, and cause from random variation—and to support more careful decisions, persistence, and adaptation under uncertainty.